Sophia
The roar of the crowd, the crunch of pads, the thrill of victory – the NFL regular season is just days away! As the Philadelphia Eagles prepare to kick off Week 1 at Lincoln Financial Field, unveiling their newest Super Bowl championship banner against the Dallas Cowboys, the race to Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara officially begins. With a whirlwind of action expected between now and then, our team of CBS Sports experts has delved deep into the numbers to bring you their best Over/Under win total bets for the 2025 season.
Every year, our seasoned panel, including Pete Prisco, Jared Dubin, Josh Edwards, Jordan Dajani, John Breech, Garrett Podell, Zach Pereles, Cody Benjamin, and yours truly, meticulously analyzes each team’s prospects. While we’ll provide a comprehensive look at every team’s current Over/Under odds, our focus will be on the “best bets” and insightful leans from our panel. All NFL odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s dive in!
AFC Contenders: Can the Bills Dominate and the Ravens Soar?
Baltimore Ravens: Over 11.5 Wins (-120)
Lean: Over 11.5. The Ravens have consistently surpassed this mark in the last two seasons, and the 2025 squad might be their strongest yet. With Lamar Jackson in the prime of his career, a solid (albeit veteran) group of skill players, and defensive enhancements like rookie safety Malakai Starks and Mike Green, Baltimore is poised for another dominant year.
Buffalo Bills: Over 11.5 Wins (-160)
- Prisco: Over 13.5 (+230). “That seems crazy, but they play in a soft division and the schedule is favorable. They play most of their tough games at home and their longest road trip is to Houston. Oh, and they are loaded with the MVP at quarterback.”
- Sullivan: Over 11.5 (-16). “Buffalo has itself a cupcake schedule in 2025 that ranks as the fifth-easiest in the NFL. Even their tough matchups like the Ravens (Week 1), Chiefs (Week 9), and Eagles (Week 17) are all at home. We know that Josh Allen will keep the offense humming at an elite level, and if the defense can play better situationally (third-worst on third down in 2024) with their new additions, this could be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.”
Kansas City Chiefs: Over 11.5 Wins (+110)
- Dubin: Over 11.5. “Kansas City has won 12-plus games in six of Patrick Mahomes’ seven seasons as the starter. I continue to list the Over for the Chiefs as my favorite bet in this exercise, basically every year. It’s like they’re giving money away.”
NFC Powerhouses: Packers Poised for a Run, Rams to Surprise?
Green Bay Packers: Over 10.5 Wins (+105)
- Podell: Over 10.5. “The Pack is back. The NFL’s youngest team finally added a first-round wide receiver in the speedy Matthew Golden, and all reports out of Green Bay make it seem like he’s ready to be the team’s WR1 early on. Matt LaFleur’s squad was both a top 10 offense (27.1 points per game, eighth-best in the NFL) and a top 10 defense (19.9 points per game allowed, sixth-best in the NFL) last season, and now they have continuity in defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley’s scheme entering a second season with his playbook. Oh, and Hafley’s top 10 defense just added All-Pro edge rusher Micah Parsons in a trade with the Dallas Cowboys on Thursday. Parsons’ career comparison through his first four seasons played is literally Hall of Famer Reggie White: they are the only two players with at least 12 sacks in each of their first four seasons played. Let the good times roll in Green Bay.”
The acquisition of Micah Parsons is a game-changer for Green Bay, instantly elevating an already solid defense into elite territory. His historical performance, mirroring that of the legendary Reggie White, suggests the Packers could be a dominant force in the NFC.
Los Angeles Rams: Over 10.5 Wins (+135)
- Dajani: Over 9.5 (-125). “If you’re scared of Matthew Stafford’s back holding up, I understand why you would want to avoid this bet. But Stafford getting hurt is the only way this doesn’t hit. Davante Adams, opposite of Puka Nacua, is going to be fun to watch, and then the Rams have an incredibly talented defense that was virtually historic last year. Remember, this team came just one or two plays away from hosting the NFC Championship game.”
San Francisco 49ers: Over 10.5 Wins (-110)
Lean: Over 10.5. The 49ers boast the easiest schedule in the NFL for 2025, offering a clear path to success. Despite some key player departures, the core of Brock Purdy, Trent Williams, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey remains intact, promising an elite offense. The return of defensive coordinator Robert Saleh could also rejuvenate their defensive unit, making them a formidable contender.
Intriguing Storylines: Broncos Breakout, Steelers’ Rodgers Era
Denver Broncos: Over 9.5 Wins (+100)
- Sullivan: Over 9.5 (+100). “Can Bo Nix and Sean Payton do it again? Last year, this was a 10-7 squad that surprisingly splashed into the playoff picture in Year 1 of Nix. Heading into his sophomore season, Denver has improved the roster around Nix with the likes of Evan Engram and a revamped backfield with rookie RJ Harvey. That’s not to mention they also boast arguably the best defense in the NFL. They have the easiest strength of schedule in the AFC West, and I’m banking on a repeat 10-win season from Nix and Co.”
The Broncos’ surprising playoff run last year, fueled by Bo Nix’s impressive rookie campaign, sets the stage for an exciting 2025. With an improved supporting cast and an elite defense, Denver could once again defy expectations.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 8.5 Wins (+100)
- Breech: Over 8.5. “In 2022, Mike Tomlin won nine games with a combination of Kenny Pickett and Mitchell Trubisky playing quarterback for him. In 2023, he won 10 games with Pickett, Trubisky and Mason Rudolph all starting multiple games during the season. In 2024, he led the team to 10 wins with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields both starting at least six games. Even at 41, Aaron Rodgers is better than all of those quarterbacks. I’ll take the over here.”
- Podell: Over 9.5 (+175). “The Pittsburgh Steelers return much of a defensive core that produced a top 10 scoring defense (20.4 points per game allowed, eighth-fewest in the NFL) with seven-time Pro Bowler Jalen Ramsey trading places with five-time Pro Bowler Minkah Fitzpatrick. Offensively, the Steelers lost young deep threat George Pickens, but they replaced him with two-time Pro Bowl wideout DK Metcalf and now have Aaron Rodgers at quarterback. Rodgers didn’t have a great overall season with the New York Jets in 2024. Still, he finished decently, throwing 18 touchdowns to only four interceptions in the last 10 games, the seventh-best touchdown-to-interception ratio in that span. The further removed Rodgers is from the torn Achilles, the better he could play.”
The arrival of Aaron Rodgers in Pittsburgh, coupled with Mike Tomlin’s consistent ability to win with various quarterbacks, makes the Steelers a fascinating team to watch. Despite Rodgers’ age, his late-season performance last year suggests he still has plenty left in the tank, especially with a revamped receiving corps and a stout defense.
Other Key Over/Under Bets and Leans
Arizona Cardinals: Lean Over 8.5 Wins (-120)
With a talented defense featuring rookie Will Johnson and free agent Josh Sweat, the Cardinals’ success hinges on Kyler Murray and the offense. Marvin Harrison Jr.’s anticipated Year 2 leap, alongside Trey McBride and James Conner, could push them to at least nine wins.
Atlanta Falcons: Lean Under 7.5 Wins (+115)
Despite the fourth-easiest schedule, relying on first-year full-time starter Michael Penix Jr. for eight wins feels premature. Atlanta’s double-dip at pass rusher in the draft is promising, but 2025 feels like a foundational year for a scrappy 7-10 finish.
Carolina Panthers: Prisco: Under 7.5 Wins (-150)
“I’m not buying into the Bryce Young hype just yet. Plus, they are the third team in their division in my eyes. They will have a tough time getting to eight victories.”
Chicago Bears: Prisco: Under 7.5 Wins (+110)
“This team is a year away. It’s crazy to think that Ben Johnson will step in and fix all the issues in one season. Plus, the division is brutal.”
Cincinnati Bengals: Lean Under 10.5 Wins (-180)
While the offense remains prolific with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, defensive concerns are evident after a shaky preseason. They’ll score points, but stopping opponents could be their Achilles’ heel.
Cleveland Browns: Lean Under 4.5 Wins (+120)
Facing the NFL’s second-toughest schedule, the Browns’ ceiling is low. Joe Flacco might snatch a win or two, but a potential No. 1 overall pick feels more likely than exceeding 4.5 wins.
Dallas Cowboys: Podell: Under 7.5 Wins (-135)
“The Cowboys’ defensive expected points added (EPA) per play when Micah Parsons was on the field was the best in the NFL since 2021. When off the field in that same span, Dallas has the league’s worst EPA per play, per CBS Sports Research. That data suggests Jerry Jones made the wrong move in trading him to the Green Bay Packers. Quarterback Dak Prescott could very well put up video game numbers throwing to All-Pro wide receiver CeeDee Lamb and the explosive George Pickens. However, their defense will likely struggle to get after quarterbacks without Parsons. This defense could be rough in 2025.”
Detroit Lions: Lean Under 10.5 Wins (-140)
Despite their talent, the loss of both coordinators (Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn) and the third-toughest schedule in the NFL could make 2025 a rock fight. A 10-7 record might still win the division, but exceeding 10.5 wins will be a challenge.
Houston Texans: Over 9.5 Wins (+105)
- Edwards: Over 9.5. “Houston had 10 wins during a season many considered a disappointment. They have suffered multiple unfortunate injuries, but I have faith C.J. Stroud can do enough in combination with an improved defense. The only concern is that I also like the Jaguars and could justify three Overs within this division, but it is not going to work out for someone.”
- Pereles: Over 9.5. “Almost everything went wrong for Houston’s offense last year: Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell both suffered season-ending injuries, Nico Collins missed time as well, the offensive line was putrid … and the Texans still won 10 games. Expect a much better offensive scheme, a C.J. Stroud rebound and one of the league’s defenses to carry them to at least 10 wins; I’d consider OVER 10.5 (+175) as well.”
- Benjamin: Over 8.5 (-160). “Houston is always relatively overlooked in the national conversation, and the Texans are even more of an afterthought following C.J. Stroud’s disappointing sophomore dip. The O-line is still a question, but a rebound feels inevitable. DeMeco Ryans’ defense remains scary. And the division is always ripe for the taking.”
Indianapolis Colts: Mixed Opinions
- Dubin: Under 7.5. “I cannot in good conscience tell you that a Daniel Jones-quarterbacked team should win 8 or more games. It seems more likely that the Colts end up shuffling back and forth between Jones and Anthony Richardson, losing plenty of games along the way.”
- Edwards: Over 7.5. “Indianapolis reached eight wins last season despite oscillating back and forth between Anthony Richardson and Joe Flacco. Daniel Jones is not a game changer, but he brings a more stable style of play that should allow the team to compete in a winnable AFC South during a make-or-break year for leadership.”
- Breech: Over 7.5. “I’m not saying I trust Daniel Jones, but I do trust Shane Steichen to get the most out of his starting quarterback. This team won nine games in 2023 with Gardner Minshew starting for most of the season. They had an ugly QB situation in 2024 and Steichen still managed to lead the team to eight wins. In 2025, the Colts have one of the easiest strength of schedules in the NFL. They have an underrated defense and an offense that could surprise some people as long as Jones doesn’t turn the ball over five times per game.”
- Pereles: Under 5.5 (+240). “I do not trust Daniel Jones, and I do not trust a coaching staff that would choose to trust Daniel Jones.”
Jacksonville Jaguars: Lean Under 7.5 Wins (+105)
Liam Coen’s arrival should boost the offense, but Trevor Lawrence’s health remains a concern. While their schedule is favorable, 2025 feels like a year for establishing a foundation rather than contending for eight wins.
Las Vegas Raiders: Lean Under 7.5 Wins (-175)
Despite improvements with Geno Smith and Pete Carroll, the Raiders face a tough AFC West. Doubling last year’s win total seems unlikely in a division with the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers all looking strong.
Los Angeles Chargers: Pereles: Under 8.5 Wins (+135)
“The Chargers finished with the NFL’s top-scoring defense last year, despite ranking 11th in yards allowed. Red zone defense is notoriously fickle from year to year, so a regression there wouldn’t surprise me. Add in Rashawn Slater’s season-ending injury, and I think the Chargers end up at the bottom of a competitive AFC West after arriving a year early in 2024.”
Miami Dolphins: Lean Under 7.5 Wins (-110)
The Dolphins are at an inflection point. Injuries in the secondary, offensive line questions, and Tua Tagovailoa’s health create uncertainty. With division rivals on the upswing, Miami could struggle to meet expectations.
Minnesota Vikings: Lean Under 9.5 Wins (-135)
J.J. McCarthy is a major wild card. While the Vikings are confident in their new QB, 2025 feels like a developmental year. Expect a slight step back as McCarthy grows into his role.
New England Patriots: Sullivan: Over 8.5 Wins (+110)
“Yeah, yeah, call it a homer pick if you want, but it’s hard not to like what New England did this offseason. Mike Vrabel installed as their new head coach should raise the floor from the 4-13 campaigns they endured the last two years. They also improved the roster on both sides of the ball, headlined by Milton Williams on defense and Stefon Diggs on offense. More importantly, this pick rests on Drake Maye taking a Year 2 leap, which I expect he will with a better O-line in front of him. Oh, and the Patriots have the second-easiest schedule in the NFL in 2025.”
New Orleans Saints: Dajani: Under 5.5 Wins (-165)
“I think New Orleans is the worst team in the NFL entering this season, and we will see both Spencer Rattler and Tyler Shough start games. It appears the rest of the NFC South is ascending, while New Orleans is descending.”
New York Giants: Lean Under 5.5 Wins (-115)
The Giants face the NFL’s hardest schedule, a gauntlet of playoff contenders. With little reprieve, wins will be scarce, making the under a strong lean.
New York Jets: Lean Over 5.5 Wins (-145)
Justin Fields’ arrival, coupled with first-year head coach Aaron Glenn’s familiarity with him, is a calculated risk. If Fields develops as a passer, the Jets’ talent on offense and fierce defense could push them over 5.5 wins.
Philadelphia Eagles: Lean Under 11.5 Wins (-135)
While 11 wins could still secure the NFC East, the Eagles face the fourth-toughest schedule in the NFL, including demanding road trips. This challenging slate makes the under a reasonable projection.
Seattle Seahawks: Mixed Opinions
- Edwards: Over 8.5. “Seattle, in theory, has improved its defense. The offensive line should be improved enough to offset the loss of Geno Smith and I believe Mike Macdonald to be one of the better coaches in the league.”
- Benjamin: Over 7.5 (-145). “Look, Sam Darnold’s Vikings finale was utterly deflating. He also launched 30 scores in 2024. His Seattle setup may not be nearly as good, but is it that far off, especially when you factor in Mike Macdonald’s defense? In a wide-open NFC West, it’s not hard to envision them right back in the wild-card mix.”
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Lean Over 9.5 Wins (+100)
With the most talented roster in the NFC South and a top-10 easiest schedule, the Buccaneers are a strong bet to win their division again and hit at least 10 wins, assuming health.
Tennessee Titans: Lean Over 5.5 Wins (-140)
Cam Ward, perhaps the most slept-on No. 1 overall quarterback, flashed potential in preseason. With an improved offensive line and the eighth-easiest schedule, the Titans could surprise, hitting 10 wins and potentially seeing Ward win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+300).
Washington Commanders: Lean Over 9.5 Wins (-105)
While regression in last-second wins is possible, the Commanders improved their offense with Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel. If Jayden Daniels avoids a sophomore slump, the over is in play. However, if those close wins disappear, missing the playoffs at +102 odds becomes appealing.
Final Thoughts
As the 2025 NFL season dawns, the landscape is ripe with potential upsets, breakout stars, and thrilling finishes. From the Green Bay Packers’ formidable new defense to the Denver Broncos’ quest for a repeat playoff run, every team offers a unique narrative. Our experts have laid out their best bets and leans, providing a comprehensive guide to navigating the exciting world of NFL win totals. Get ready for a season filled with unforgettable moments!
For more insights into the upcoming season and detailed analysis, check out the CBS Sports NFL preview.
