Prisco’s Week 1 NFL Picks: Bills Edge Ravens, Jets Upset Steelers, and Bears Spoil McCarthy’s Debut

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Welcome back, football fanatics! After a rollercoaster of a season last year, a new NFL campaign dawns, bringing with it renewed hope, fresh narratives, and, for me, a commitment to vastly improved predictions. My 2024 picks may not have been my finest hour, but like every team and fan base, I’m approaching Week 1 with a clean slate and boundless optimism.

This season promises to be electrifying, with intriguing matchups, high-stakes debuts, and potential playoff implications right from the start. From Super Bowl contenders clashing to rookie quarterbacks stepping into the spotlight, the opening weekend is packed with drama. Let’s dive into the action, break down the key matchups, and unveil my Week 1 predictions.

Prisco's Week 1 NFL picks: Bills outlast Ravens, Jets beat Aaron Rodgers and Bears ruin J.J. McCarthy's debut
Image source: CBSSports.com

Thursday Night Thriller: Cowboys at Eagles

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-8)

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC (Stream: Fubo – try for free)

The reigning NFC Champion Eagles kick off their season at home, a fitting start for a team that looks poised for another deep playoff run. Despite the Cowboys trading Micah Parsons last week, I believe Dak Prescott will keep Dallas competitive. However, the Eagles’ formidable roster and home-field advantage should see them start 1-0.

Pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 24 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Friday Night Football in Brazil: Chiefs vs. Chargers

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (in Brazil)

Friday, 8 p.m. ET on YouTube

The Chiefs appear to have shored up their offensive line, a critical development given the Chargers’ significant loss of Rashawn Slater for the season. This means more time for Patrick Mahomes, and that’s a terrifying prospect for any defense. Expect Mahomes to begin his MVP campaign with a stellar performance in Brazil.

Pick: Chiefs 30, Chargers 21 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (New users get $300 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket. Click here to get started.)

Sunday Early Slate: Key Divisional Battles and Debuts

NFC South Showdown: Buccaneers at Falcons

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo – try for free)

This divisional clash is a crucial opener. While both teams face offensive line injuries, I’m betting on Baker Mayfield to lead the Buccaneers to a strong start. The Falcons’ defensive questions, coupled with Michael Penix Jr.’s likely struggle to keep pace, will tip this in Tampa Bay’s favor.

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Pick: Bucs 28, Falcons 24 | Odds via BetMGM

Battle of Ohio: Bengals at Browns

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5) at Cleveland Browns

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo – try for free)

The “Battle of Ohio” brings Joe Burrow against Joe Flacco, a clear advantage for the Bengals. Cincinnati’s offense should pick up where it left off, putting up big numbers. While their defense has question marks, the Browns won’t be able to match Burrow’s firepower.

Pick: Bengals 30, Browns 27 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Dolphins at Colts: High-Scoring Affair?

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-1)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

Daniel Jones makes his Colts debut against a Dolphins secondary that isn’t elite. This sets the stage for a potentially high-scoring game. With Tyreek Hill expected back and healthy, Miami’s offense should also find success. Look for the Colts to edge out a win at home.

Pick: Colts 33, Dolphins 30 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Panthers at Jaguars: Coen’s Debut

Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo – try for free)

Liam Coen makes his head coaching debut for the Jaguars, promising an invigorated offense. Trevor Lawrence should shine, and keep an eye on Travis Hunter’s usage. While Bryce Young and the Panthers have optimism, I foresee the Jaguars getting the better of them at home.

Pick: Jaguars 27, Panthers 21 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Raiders at Patriots: New Coaching Eras Begin

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-2.5)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This game marks the debut of Pete Carroll leading the Raiders and Mike Vrabel as the Patriots’ new head coach. While New England should be improved, I believe Geno Smith will do enough to lead the Raiders to a late victory, giving Carroll some sweet revenge.

Pick: Raiders 24, Patriots 23 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Cardinals at Saints: Road Victory for Arizona?

Arizona Cardinals (-6.5) at New Orleans Saints

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo – try for free)

Opening on the road is always a challenge, but the Cardinals’ improved defense should be a difference-maker against a Saints team not expected to contend. They’ll limit Spencer Rattler and grind out a tough road victory.

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Pick: Cardinals 23, Saints 20 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Steelers at Jets: Rodgers’ Return vs. Fields’ Revenge

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at New York Jets

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

Aaron Rodgers' primetime record: Jets QB's win-loss on big stages where fitting
Image source: The Denver Post

This game is packed with storylines: Aaron Rodgers’ highly anticipated return to face the Jets, and Justin Fields facing his former team. Expect a defensive slugfest, with the Jets finding a way to win at home in a significant upset.

Pick: Jets 20, Steelers 16 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Giants at Commanders: Wilson’s Debut vs. Daniels’ Sophomore Jump

New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo – try for free)

Russell Wilson makes his Giants debut, with rookie Jaxson Dart looming. He’ll need a strong start. Jayden Daniels, after an impressive rookie year, leads the Commanders. While the Giants’ pass rush could trouble Daniels, Washington should secure a close victory.

Pick: Commanders 26, Giants 23 | Odds via BetMGM

Sunday Afternoon Action: West Coast and Divisional Showdowns

Titans at Broncos: Rookie QB’s Tough Start

Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos (-7.5)

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo – try for free)

Cameron Ward’s first NFL start for the Titans comes against one of the league’s best defenses in a hostile environment. That’s a brutal initiation. Bo Nix should find success for Denver, and the Broncos’ defense will shut down Ward, leading to a comfortable win.

Pick: Broncos 26, Titans 13 | Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

49ers at Seahawks: NFC West Rivalry

San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) at Seattle Seahawks

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET on Fox (Stream: Fubo – try for free)

The 49ers have dominated this series recently, and with key players like Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams healthy, they are formidable. Sam Darnold’s first start for Seattle makes this challenging. While playing in Seattle is tough, the 49ers know how to win there and will do so again.

Pick: 49ers 23, Seahawks 17 | Odds via BetMGM

Lions at Packers: NFC North Battle

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)

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Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

This is a fantastic way to open the season, pitting two of the NFC’s top teams against each other. The Lions have new coordinators, while the Packers’ acquisition of Micah Parsons from Dallas is a game-changer, even without a full camp. Expect a high-scoring affair, with Jordan Love leading the Packers to a late victory.

Pick: Packers 35, Lions 30 | Odds via BetMGM

Texans at Rams: Stafford’s Health a Concern?

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-3)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET on CBS (Stream on Paramount+)

Matthew Stafford’s limited summer due to a back injury is a concern, despite assurances he’s fine. He faces a fierce Texans defense. C.J. Stroud aims to rebound from his “sophomore slump,” but his offensive line remains a question mark. The Rams’ pass rush will get to Stroud, securing a home win.

Pick: Rams 23, Texans 17 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Sunday Night Football: Super Bowl Contenders Clash

Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (-1)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC (Stream: Fubo – try for free)

Prisco's Week 1 NFL picks: Bills spoil Aaron Rodgers' debut with Jets; Packers, Steelers pull off upsets
Image source: CBSSports.com

This is the marquee matchup of Week 1, featuring two legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Ravens will be seeking revenge after their playoff loss to the Bills last year. However, opening on the road against a formidable opponent like Josh Allen and the Bills is a tough ask. Buffalo will win a hard-fought, close game.

Pick: Bills 34, Ravens 31 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook

Monday Night Football: Rookie vs. Rookie Head Coach

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN (Stream: Fubo – try for free)

NFL Picks: Aaron Rodgers' return, Caleb Williams' debut part of packed Week 1
Image source: CBSSports.com

J.J. McCarthy makes his first NFL start for the Vikings, while Ben Johnson debuts as the Bears’ head coach. Chicago’s offense, under Johnson and with Caleb Williams, should be significantly improved. McCarthy’s first road start will be a challenge. Look for the Bears to pull off a small upset.

Pick: Bears 27, Vikings 21 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

There you have it – my full slate of Week 1 predictions. The NFL season is finally here, and I’m ready to turn the page and deliver winning picks. Enjoy the games!

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