Sophia
The Dallas Cowboys are entering a pivotal 2025 season following a disappointing 7-10 campaign. After three consecutive 12-5 seasons, injuries to key players and struggles on both sides of the ball derailed their playoff aspirations. Now, with a new head coach, significant roster changes, and high expectations, the Cowboys are looking to reclaim their position as an NFC powerhouse. This comprehensive guide breaks down their 2025 outlook, offering insights into their Super Bowl odds, win total projections, key player props, and expert betting picks.
A Season of Setbacks: Reviewing the 2024 Cowboys
The 2024 season was a stark contrast to recent Dallas history. A 7-10 record placed them third in the NFC East, missing the playoffs entirely. Quarterback Dak Prescott’s injury, limiting him to just eight games (3-5 record, 11 TDs, 8 INTs), was a major blow. The rushing attack, relying on Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott, plummeted to 30th in yards per attempt and dead last (32nd) in rushing touchdowns. Defensively, the team regressed significantly, allowing the second-most points in the NFL and struggling to find consistent pressure beyond star pass rusher Micah Parsons.
Key 2024 Season Statistics:
- Regular Season Record: 7-10 (Third, NFC East)
- Playoffs: Missed
- Fewest PPG (20.6) since 2015
- 28th in total defense (worst since 2013)
Offseason Overhaul: New Faces and Departures
The Cowboys’ front office has been busy reshaping the roster and coaching staff. Brian Schottenheimer, previously the offensive coordinator, takes the helm as head coach. This move signals a potential shift in offensive philosophy, as Schottenheimer’s prior stints in Seattle saw three top-10 scoring offenses, often leaning on a strong running game.
The most impactful departure is undoubtedly Micah Parsons, traded to the Packers due to a contract disagreement. While Dallas receives Kenny Clark in return, losing a transformative defensive talent like Parsons leaves a significant void. On offense, the team has bolstered its running back room by signing Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, and drafting Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah. These additions aim to rejuvenate a stagnant ground game and alleviate pressure on Prescott.
2025 Dallas Cowboys Offseason Moves:
| Position | Lost | Added | Drafted |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Cooper Rush, Trey Lance | Joe Milton | |
| RB | Rico Dowdle | Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders | Jaydon Blue (5), Phil Mafah (7) |
| WR | Brandin Cooks | George Pickens, Parris Campbell | |
| OL | Zack Martin, Chuma Edoga | Rob Jones, Hakeem Adeniji, Saahdiq Charles | Tyler Booker (1), Ajani Cornelius (6) |
| DL | Linval Joseph, Carlos Watkins | Solomon Thomas, Perrion Winfrey | Jay Toia (7), Tommy Akingbesote (7) |
| EDGE | Demarcus Lawrence, Chauncey Golston, Carl Lawson | Dante Fowler, Payton Turner, James Houston | Donovan Ezeiruaku (2) |
| LB | Eric Kendricks, Nick Vigil | Kenneth Murray, Jack Sanborn | Shemar James (5) |
| CB | Jourdan Lewis, Amani Oruwariye | Kaiir Elam, Robert Rochell | Shavon Revel (3) |
| STAFF | Mike McCarthy (HC), Mike Zimmer (DC) | Klayton Adams (OC), Matt Eberflus (DC) |
Historical Betting Trends: Cowboys Futures
Analyzing the Cowboys’ performance against futures odds over the past five years provides valuable context for 2025. Dallas has consistently outperformed their win total projections, hitting the “Over” in three of the last five seasons. However, Super Bowl aspirations have remained elusive.
Five-Year Futures Odds and Trends:
| Year | Super Bowl Odds | Win Total | Result | Actual Wins | Finish |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | +2000 | 10 | Under | 7 | 3rd, NFC East |
| 2023 | +1400 | 9.5 | Over | 12 | L, Wild card round |
| 2022 | +1960 | 10.5 | Over | 12 | L, Divisional round |
| 2021 | +3000 | 9 | Over | 12 | L, Wild card round |
| 2020 | +1200 | 10 | Under | 6 | 3rd, NFC East |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Dallas Cowboys Futures Odds
Here are the current odds for the Cowboys’ 2025 season, available at top sportsbooks:
| Odds to … | BetMGM | Caesars | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Go Over win total | 7.5 (-120) | 7.5 (-125) | 7.5 (-140) | 7.5 (-125) |
| Go Under win total | 7.5 (+100) | 7.5 (+105) | 7.5 (+115) | 7.5 (+105) |
| Win Super Bowl | +5000 | +5000 | +5500 | +4500 |
| Win NFC | +2000 | +2500 | +2500 | +2200 |
| Win NFC East | +675 | +625 | +650 | +500 |
| Make playoffs | +175 | +190 | +170 | +186 |
| Miss playoffs | -210 | -240 | -210 | -235 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +3000 | +3500 | +2200 | +2500 |
Odds subject to change.
Dak Prescott Player Props for 2025
Dak Prescott’s performance will be crucial to the Cowboys’ success. Here are some key player props to consider for the upcoming season:
| Prop | BetMGM | Caesars | DraftKings | FanDuel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVP | +3000 | +2800 | +3000 | +4000 |
| Offensive POY | +10000 | +10000 | +10000 | +15000 |
| Most pass yards | +800 | +900 | +850 | +900 |
| Pass yards O/U | 3875.5 | 3900.5 | 3900.5 | 3875.5 |
| Pass TDs O/U | 26.5 | 25.5 | 26.5 | 26.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to Back the Cowboys in 2025
Despite last season’s struggles, there are compelling reasons to be optimistic about the Cowboys. Dak Prescott, when healthy, is an elite quarterback. He led the league in passing touchdowns in 2023 and finished second in MVP voting. With CeeDee Lamb, one of the NFL’s best receivers, and the addition of George Pickens, the Cowboys could boast one of the most dynamic passing attacks in the league. Pickens, in particular, should benefit from a change of scenery and more favorable matchups.
The revamped running back room, featuring Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, should provide a much-needed boost to the ground game. The offensive line remains solid, with first-round pick Tyler Booker expected to make an immediate impact. Furthermore, the early-season schedule offers an opportunity for the Cowboys to build momentum under Coach Schottenheimer. After a tough opener against the Eagles, four of the next five games are against non-playoff teams from 2024, including home games against Washington and Arizona.
Reasons to Fade the Cowboys in 2025
The defensive outlook presents significant concerns. The loss of Micah Parsons is monumental, and early-season injuries to Trevon Diggs and Demarvion Overshown further deplete a unit that struggled immensely in 2024. This defense, which ranked 28th in total defense last season, can ill-afford to be without top-tier talent.
Another question mark is Brian Schottenheimer’s transition to head coach. While his offensive units have performed well as a coordinator, this will be his first time leading a team. His influence on play-calling, previously handled by Mike McCarthy, is an unknown. This could lead to early-season growing pains, potentially impacting the team’s win total.
How to Bet the Cowboys in 2025: Expert Picks
Best Bets:
- Over 7.5 wins (-120 at BetMGM)
- Dak Prescott Comeback Player of the Year (+325 at BetMGM)
I’m banking on a significant rebound from the Cowboys’ offense. With Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and George Pickens, they possess a formidable combination of quarterback and top receivers, arguably one of the best in the league outside of Cincinnati. The Bengals, with a similar offensive profile and a 25th-ranked defense, finished 9-8 last year in a tough division. I foresee a similar path for the Cowboys if they can maintain health.
While the schedule tightens towards the end of the season, winnable home games against the Chargers and Vikings, along with home matchups against the Eagles and Chiefs, provide opportunities. I also believe they can steal a road win against either the Lions or Commanders. Entering the Week 18 matchup against the Giants at 5-5 could be enough to push them to eight wins.
Dak Prescott offers excellent value for Comeback Player of the Year, especially at +300 or higher. He showcased his elite talent in 2023, leading the league with 36 passing touchdowns and finishing second in MVP voting. If the Cowboys contend for the division title, Prescott could even be in the MVP conversation. The disparity in MVP odds between Prescott (+4000) and Joe Burrow (+600) on FanDuel, given their comparable situations, suggests a significant bargain for Prescott at anything above +2000.
