Sophia
In a move that sent shockwaves through the NFL, the Dallas Cowboys traded superstar linebacker Micah Parsons to the Green Bay Packers. The return for Dallas? Two first-round picks (one in 2026, one in 2027) and defensive lineman Kenny Clark. While Cowboys owner Jerry Jones confidently declared, “I don’t regret anything at all. … I’m excited, we got what we wanted,” the immediate reaction from fans and media alike was a resounding sentiment that “America’s Team” got fleeced.
It’s easy to make snap judgments in the immediate aftermath of a blockbuster trade, especially when a player of Parsons’ caliber is involved. But what does history tell us about teams that receive multiple first-round picks for a star player? And what are the long-term implications for the Cowboys?
A Look at Recent Two First-Round Pick Trades
Since 2019, seven veteran players, including Parsons, have been traded for two first-round picks. The results have been a mixed bag:
| Year | Player | Traded from | Traded to |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Micah Parsons | Cowboys | Packers |
| 2022 | *Deshaun Watson | Texans | Browns |
| 2022 | Russell Wilson | Seahawks | Broncos |
| 2021 | Matthew Stafford | Lions | Rams |
| 2020 | Jamal Adams | Jets | Seahawks |
| 2019 | Jalen Ramsey | Jaguars | Rams |
| 2019 | Laremy Tunsil | Dolphins | Texans |
*Watson was traded for three first-round picks.
While the Deshaun Watson and Russell Wilson trades are still playing out, Matthew Stafford famously led the Rams to a Super Bowl in his first season. Jamal Adams’ promising career was unfortunately derailed by injuries. Jalen Ramsey was a two-time All-Pro with the Rams before moving to Miami, and Laremy Tunsil has made five Pro Bowls in six seasons with the Texans.
The Value of Late First-Round Picks
Given the Green Bay Packers’ recent performance and the addition of Parsons, it’s reasonable to assume these future first-round picks will fall between 20th and 32nd overall. For context, since Jordan Love became the starter in 2023, the Packers have picked 25th and 23rd. With Parsons, they’re likely to be even better, pushing those picks closer to the end of the first round.
Historically, there have been late first-round steals on the defensive side, including future Hall of Famers like Ed Reed, Vince Wilfork, Clay Matthews, and more recently, Cam Heyward, Cam Jordan, and T.J. Watt. These players, selected between picks 21-30, averaged an impressive seven All-Pro selections and an Approximate Value (AV) of 122.7.
However, these are the exceptions. The reality is far less optimistic. Other first-rounders taken between picks 21-32 from 2000-2017 averaged just 0.8 All-Pro selections and an AV of 37. As a PFF article on historical draft hit rates illustrates, the chances of “hitting” on a player decrease significantly as you move further down the draft board, particularly after the top 10.
The Irreplaceable Impact of Micah Parsons
This reality is particularly concerning for the Cowboys because Parsons is a generational talent. He is one of only two players in NFL history (along with Reggie White) to record 12+ sacks in each of his first four seasons. The 26-year-old also boasts the highest pressure percentage (20.3%) among all pass rushers over the last four seasons, outperforming stars like Trey Hendrickson, Nick Bosa, and Myles Garrett.
Perhaps the most damning statistic comes from CBS Sports research: over the last four seasons, the Cowboys’ defensive EPA per play with Parsons on the field was the best in the NFL. When Parsons wasn’t on the field? The Dallas defense ranked dead last. This isn’t just a loss of a great player; it’s the loss of the engine that drove their defense.
The immediate fallout is already clear: according to the Sportsline model, Dallas’ chances of making the playoffs have plummeted from 27.5% to 17.8%.
Future Draft Prospects: A Realistic View
While the 2026 draft class is reportedly deep at edge rusher, the question remains: can the Cowboys truly replace Parsons? Former Titans GM Ran Carthon, co-host of the “With the First Pick” podcast, offered a sobering perspective when asked about packaging two first-round picks to move up for talents like Clemson’s Peter Woods or Auburn’s Keldric Faulk.
“No matter how you view Keldric Faulk, he’s not Micah Parsons, right?” Carthon stated. “And with Peter Woods, yeah, you’re going to add a dynamic interior player, but even Peter Woods is not Micah Parsons. Because we’re talking about Peter Woods as a talented dude and we feel like he’s got top five talent, but Peter Woods still has to transition to the National Football League and produce. Micah Parsons has already done it.”
Carthon also noted that in a recent preseason mock draft, only two edge rushers were projected to be taken before the Cowboys’ hypothetical pick at No. 15. The absence of a truly elite, “Abdul Carter”-level prospect further complicates the situation, making a trade-up less appealing if the value isn’t there.
And for those “galaxy brain” conversations involving the 2027 first-rounder and the name “Arch Manning,” Carthon’s response was simple and direct: “See, now we’re playing Fantasy football.”
Jerry Jones: Showman vs. GM
Jerry Jones, the showman and astute businessman, has undoubtedly grown professional football more than anyone in the last 35 years. The Cowboys are reportedly worth an astonishing $10 billion. However, his definition of success might differ from that of the average Cowboys fan, who hasn’t seen the team reach an NFC Championship game since 1995.
This disconnect fuels the exasperation and growing apathy among the fanbase. While Jones excels at promoting the team, lingering questions about his ability to run the football operations effectively persist, regardless of the optimistic picture he paints. “We have just decided it was in the best interest of our team … and we can win, in our minds, more than had we gone the other route and signed [Parsons],” Jones asserted.
The Banquet of Consequences
It’s difficult to believe Jones’ claim, and even if the Cowboys strike gold with their two future first-round picks – landing players of the caliber of 2024’s Quinyon Mitchell and Brian Thomas Jr. – it won’t fully compensate for the loss of Micah Parsons. Perhaps it gets them 60% or even 75% of the way there. But then what?
Their remaining star players, Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb, will be two years older, further along in their contracts, and two years further removed from that elusive NFC Championship appearance. And Jones will be two years further into trying to convince everyone that trading Parsons was “in the best interest” of the organization.
As Jerry Jones declared, “I don’t regret anything at all. … I’m excited, we got what we wanted.” But as author Robert Louis Stevenson wisely penned, “Everybody, sooner or later, sits down to a banquet of consequences.” For the Dallas Cowboys, that banquet has just begun.
