Sophia
The NFL’s international series kicks off this Sunday morning in Dublin, Ireland, as the Minnesota Vikings clash with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams enter Week 4 with identical 2-1 records, setting the stage for a compelling cross-conference battle. The Vikings, fresh off a dominant victory over the Cincinnati Bengals, will lean on quarterback Carson Wentz, who is filling in for the injured J.J. McCarthy. Meanwhile, the Steelers, led by Aaron Rodgers, secured their second AFC East win of the season last week against the New England Patriots, fueled by a strong defensive performance.
Oddsmakers have positioned the Vikings as favorites in this neutral-site contest, anticipating a tough test for Pittsburgh. With a full day of NFL action ahead, the SI Betting team has meticulously analyzed the matchups to bring you their top picks and prop bets for this intriguing standalone game. Dive into our breakdown, complete with the latest odds, to inform your wagers for Vikings vs. Steelers.
Best NFL Picks and Predictions for Vikings vs. Steelers
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook (Subject to change)
- Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 (-110) vs. Minnesota Vikings – Iain MacMillan
- Jordan Mason Anytime TD (-135) – Peter Dewey
- Jaylen Warren OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards (-112) – Peter Dewey
- Carson Wentz UNDER 30.5 Pass Attempts (-116) – Peter Dewey
Steelers to Cover: Betting on Pittsburgh +2.5 (-110)
SI’s NFL betting insider, Iain MacMillan, makes a compelling case for taking the points with the Steelers in his Road to 272 column. MacMillan highlights the Vikings’ “sell-high spot” after their dominant Week 3 performance, questioning their underlying metrics despite their 2-1 record.
“The Vikings are in a huge sell-high spot after their dominant win against the Cincinnati Bengals. I’m not buying in on them quite yet, and while Carson Wentz was serviceable in that game, I’m convinced he’s going to have a horrific performance sooner rather than later.”
– Iain MacMillan
He points out that the Vikings rank 28th in the NFL in EPA per play, suggesting their success might be unsustainable. With this being a neutral-field game in Dublin, MacMillan sees value in the Steelers. He acknowledges the uncertainty around Pittsburgh’s overall strength but trusts Aaron Rodgers’ solid play and Mike Tomlin’s ability to craft a strong game plan against a potentially “banged-up Vikings squad.”
Jordan Mason Anytime Touchdown (-135): A Ground Game Bet
Peter Dewey’s favorite anytime touchdown scorer for Week 4 is Vikings running back Jordan Mason, who stepped up significantly in Week 3 following Aaron Jones’ injury. Mason’s expanded role proved highly effective:
“Vikings running back Jordan Mason went off in Week 3 with Aaron Jones now on injured reserve, carrying the ball 16 times for 116 yards and two touchdowns. Mason wasn’t targeted in the passing game, but he played a season-high 60 percent of the snaps in the blowout win for Minnesota.”
– Peter Dewey
Mason has accumulated 40 carries for 214 yards and two scores this season. Dewey anticipates Mason will continue to exploit a Steelers defense that has already conceded four rushing touchdowns in just three weeks. With Carson Wentz under center, Mason offers a reliable and potentially high-volume option in the red zone, making him a “safest play on the Vikings.”
Jaylen Warren OVER 22.5 Receiving Yards (-112): Rodgers’ Safety Valve
Steelers running back Jaylen Warren has emerged as a crucial component of Pittsburgh’s passing attack in 2025, making him one of Peter Dewey’s top prop targets for Sunday. Warren has consistently surpassed the 22.5 receiving yards mark in two of his three games this season.
While the Vikings have been relatively stingy against running backs in the passing game, allowing only 12 catches, they have still given up an average of 23 receiving yards per game to the position. Warren’s usage and production are compelling:
- Targeted 12 times by Aaron Rodgers, reeling in 11 passes for 142 yards.
- Logged 10 targets and 120 receiving yards in his last two games.
- Played a season-high 79.6 percent of snaps in Week 3.
Against a formidable Minnesota pass rush, Warren is expected to serve as a vital “safety valve” for Rodgers, helping to counter Brian Flores’ aggressive blitz packages.
Carson Wentz UNDER 30.5 Pass Attempts (-116): Conservative Approach Expected
Despite this being Carson Wentz’s second start of the season, Peter Dewey believes the pass attempts line of 30.5 is too high. His reasoning stems from a clear trend observed in the Vikings’ offense this season:
“Wentz only needed to throw the ball 20 times in the Vikings’ blowout win in Week 3, but this follows an interesting trend for the Minnesota offense this season. J.J. McCarthy only attempted 20 and 21 passes in the first two weeks of the season, even though the Vikings were behind early in both matchups.”
– Peter Dewey
Given Jordan Mason’s effectiveness on the ground, Dewey predicts that head coach Kevin O’Connell will likely opt for a conservative game plan once again in Week 4, limiting Wentz’s passing volume. This strategic approach aims to leverage the Vikings’ strong run game and mitigate potential risks with a backup quarterback.
Betting Resources and Responsible Gambling
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Peter Dewey is a senior editor for Sports Illustrated Betting. He has worked as a writer and editor for BetSided, NBC Sports, the Connecticut Sun, and the Meriden Record-Journal, covering the NBA, WNBA, NFL, MLB, and more. A New York City resident, he is a hoops fanatic with a soft spot for his New York Knicks. Follow @peterdewey2.
