Sophia
The anticipation for the 2025 NFL season is palpable, not just for the thrill of the game, but for the return of fantasy football and, for many, the exciting world of sports betting. As a year-round enthusiast, my focus intensifies during the fall, and with Week 1 upon us, I’ve meticulously scoured the player prop market to identify the most compelling wagers. This weekly column will delve into everything from over/under props to anytime touchdown bets and even ladder plays, all designed to help you start the season with a winning edge. Let’s dive in and make some money!
Brenton Strange: Anytime Touchdown (+400, ESPN Bet)
While the Jacksonville Jaguars’ offense is rightly highlighted by their dynamic receiving duo of Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, don’t overlook the potential impact of tight end Brenton Strange. Trevor Lawrence has a history of utilizing his tight ends, as evidenced by Evan Engram’s past production. The arrival of head coach Liam Coen further strengthens Strange’s breakout potential in 2025, starting in Week 1.
Last season, as the offensive coordinator for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Coen heavily favored tight end Cade Otton, especially in the red zone. Otton received 14 red zone targets, converting them into 10 receptions for 58 yards and four touchdowns. This precedent suggests Coen could implement a similar strategy with Strange.
Adding to Strange’s favorable outlook is a Week 1 matchup against a Carolina Panthers defense that struggled significantly against tight ends in 2024, surrendering a league-high 11 receiving touchdowns to the position. This combination of coaching scheme and defensive vulnerability makes Strange an intriguing anytime touchdown bet.
George Pickens: Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-115, BetMGM)
The Philadelphia Eagles are favored by more than a touchdown in their Week 1 clash, indicating a potential blowout. If this projection holds true, the Dallas Cowboys’ offense, led by Dak Prescott, will be forced to throw extensively to stay competitive. Even without a lopsided spread, Dallas is already anticipated to be one of the NFL’s most pass-heavy teams in 2025, particularly given their questionable backfield depth and a defense weakened by the trade of Micah Parsons.
This scenario points to a heavy workload for Dallas’s receivers, including newcomer George Pickens. While CeeDee Lamb will remain the primary target, Pickens is poised to be the Cowboys’ clear No. 2 option and their designated deep threat. Playing with the most talented quarterback of his career in Prescott, the duo has shown flashes of explosive chemistry during the summer. Given Pickens’ projected role and the likely game script, this receiving yards total feels remarkably low, even against a tough opponent.
David Njoku: 50+ Receiving Yards (-114, FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Cincinnati Bengals’ defense struggled significantly against tight ends in 2024, allowing the third-most receiving yards to the position, a trend I anticipate will continue into 2025. Furthermore, the Bengals’ potent offense will likely force Joe Flacco and the Cleveland Browns to throw frequently to keep pace, making David Njoku a central figure in Cleveland’s passing attack.
Last season, Njoku surpassed this 50-yard mark in five of his 11 games. More importantly, the rapport between Flacco and Njoku has proven to be incredibly productive. In Flacco’s five starts for the Browns during the 2023 regular season, Njoku averaged an impressive 78 receiving yards per game, including two performances with over 100 yards.
This strong historical connection and a favorable matchup create an excellent opportunity for a ladder bet on Njoku’s receiving yards in the opener:
- 50+ receiving yards at -114 (1 unit)
- 60+ receiving yards at +148 (.5 units)
- 70+ receiving yards at +225 (.25 units)
Bijan Robinson: Over 22.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
This receiving yards total for Bijan Robinson feels remarkably low for a player with his volume and versatility. While he’s expected to dominate carries for the Atlanta Falcons, Robinson was also fourth on the team in targets and fifth in receiving yards last season, averaging 25.4 receiving yards per game.
Some might be hesitant due to his average of a mere 6.7 receiving yards per game in the three starts by Michael Penix Jr. at the end of last year. However, Robinson’s four targets in those games were largely consistent with his pre-Penix numbers, suggesting that the reduced output might be an anomaly rather than a trend. He also faces a favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who surrendered the fifth-most receiving yards to running backs last season.
James Conner: Over 68.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)
James Conner remains a reliable force in the Arizona Cardinals’ ground game, and Week 1 sets up perfectly for him to start the 2025 season strong. This game against the New Orleans Saints is not expected to be highly competitive, with Spencer Rattler starting under center for a team in full rebuild mode.
If Arizona builds a comfortable lead, they will likely look to control the clock with their running game, spearheaded by Conner. He’ll be facing a Saints run defense that allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to opposing backs in 2024. The veteran back surpassed this 68.5-yard mark in eight of his 16 games played last year, further solidifying his potential for a strong performance in the opener.
