Sophia
The wait is finally over! The 2025 NFL season has arrived, kicking off with the Philadelphia Eagles raising their latest championship banner before diving into an NFC East showdown with the Dallas Cowboys. As the gridiron action ignites, so too does our weekly betting window, where we dissect every matchup against the spread and on the moneyline, culminating in our five “locks of the week.”
Before we dive into the Week 1 predictions, here’s a futures parlay to consider: the Seattle Seahawks and Denver Broncos to make the playoffs at +362 on FanDuel Sportsbook. Now, let’s get to the picks!
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Locks of the Week
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
The New England Patriots have generated significant preseason buzz, and rightfully so. The arrival of head coach Mike Vrabel alone is expected to elevate a team that has endured back-to-back 4-13 seasons. Coupled with key free agent acquisitions and promising draft picks, including a hopeful leap for second-year quarterback Drake Maye, the Patriots are poised for improvement.
However, the Las Vegas Raiders, under the radar, have made similar strides. With Pete Carroll now at the helm and Geno Smith providing stability at quarterback, their offense, featuring tight end Brock Bowers and rookie running back Ashton Jeanty, should hit the ground running. The familiarity between Carroll and Smith from their Seattle days is a significant advantage.
The crucial factor here is the Patriots’ banged-up secondary, particularly All-Pro corner Christian Gonzalez, who has missed most of camp with a hamstring injury. His potential absence could open passing lanes for Smith, making the Raiders +2.5 an appealing pick.
Projected score: Patriots 23, Raiders 21
The pick: Raiders +2.5 | Odds via BetMGM
Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
While trends might suggest a Steelers victory (4-0 SU and ATS in their last four road Week 1 games) and the Jets’ abysmal September record since 2017 (6-20 SU, 7-19 ATS), I’m bucking the trend here. I like the Jets as a home dog.
The Aaron Rodgers experiment with the Steelers has major question marks. At 41 and coming off his worst statistical season, his late-season surge was largely fueled by his rapport with Davante Adams. He lacks that established chemistry with Pittsburgh’s receiving corps. Rodgers’ late signing and absence from preseason action suggest a potentially clunky start against a familiar defensive foe.
Justin Fields, while perhaps limited as a passer, will benefit from New York’s stout defense creating fits for the Steelers’ offense. This will allow Fields to execute a run-first, ball-dominant strategy, leading to an upset home win and cover.
Projected score: Jets 23, Steelers 20
The pick: Jets +3 | Odds via BetMGM
Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
The Denver Broncos are a team to watch this season. Bo Nix’s impressive rookie campaign, though overshadowed by Jayden Daniels’ heroics, demonstrated his potential. Expect a sophomore leap from Nix, supported by a significantly improved roster. Offensively, additions like tight end Evan Engram and a revamped backfield with rookie RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins bolster their attack. Defensively, Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga are underrated additions to an already top-three unit, potentially making them the NFL’s best defense in 2025.
This spells trouble for Cam Ward and the Tennessee Titans. While Ward will make the Titans a more respectable team, this Week 1 matchup is heavily lopsided. Last season, Tennessee’s 2-15 ATS record was the worst since 1970, while Denver was 8-0 ATS as a favorite in 2024. These trends are likely to continue.
Projected score: Broncos 27, Titans 17
The pick: Broncos -7.5 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Stream on Paramount+)
This might be the “squarest” pick of the week, but sometimes the obvious choice is the right one. The New Orleans Saints endured a thoroughly uninspiring quarterback battle, with Spencer Rattler ultimately winning the job over rookie Tyler Shough. Rattler’s preseason passer rating of 86.9, while an improvement from his 70.4 rating in seven appearances last year, came against vanilla defenses. Expect him to revert to his 2024 form, where he went 0-6 as a starter, once defenses start to truly scheme against him.
Conversely, the Arizona Cardinals are a favorable road bet, especially with Kyler Murray under center. In his career, Murray boasts a remarkable 25-12-2 ATS (.676) record on the road, the second-best cover rate by a starting quarterback since 1970. This makes the Cardinals a strong play.
Projected score: Cardinals 23, Saints 16
The pick: Cardinals -6.5 | Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC, Stream: Fubo, try for free)
The NFC North is generating significant buzz, especially after the Green Bay Packers’ blockbuster acquisition of Micah Parsons. While that move could shift the balance of power, the division remains wide open. Both the Vikings and Bears are intriguing, but Chicago holds the edge in this matchup.
The Bears possess an immensely talented quarterback in Caleb Williams, and the surrounding cast has vastly improved. With Ben Johnson as head coach and a completely rebuilt offensive line, Williams is poised to showcase the talent that made him the No. 1 overall pick. This Monday night game is his stage.
While the Vikings are arguably well-equipped to develop a quarterback like J.J. McCarthy, with a stout defense, elite offensive weapons, and a stellar coach in Kevin O’Connell, making him a road favorite against a divisional opponent in his debut feels premature. McCarthy’s last meaningful snap was in the College Football Playoff National Championship. Expecting him to walk into Soldier Field and secure a road win is a tall order, especially given the Vikings’ 0-6 record in their last six road prime-time games.
Projected score: Bears 24, Vikings 23
The pick: Bears +1.5 | Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, where new users get $300 in bonus bets with a winning $5 bet.
Rest of the Bunch
- Cowboys at Eagles (Thursday)
Projected score: Eagles 33, Cowboys 24
The pick: Eagles -7 - Chiefs at Chargers (Friday)
Projected score: Chiefs 24, Chargers 20
The pick: Chiefs -3 - Panthers at Jaguars
Projected score: Jaguars 27, Panthers 20
The pick: Jaguars -3 - Bengals at Browns
Projected score: Bengals 30, Browns 19
The pick: Bengals -5.5 - Dolphins at Colts
Projected score: Dolphins 26, Colts 23
The pick: Dolphins +1.5 - Giants at Commanders
Projected score: Commanders 30, Giants 20
The pick: Commanders -6.5 - Buccaneers at Falcons
Projected score: Buccaneers 27, Falcons 23
The pick: Buccaneers -1.5 - 49ers at Seahawks
Projected score: Seahawks 24, 49ers 21
The pick: Seahawks +2.5 - Lions at Packers
Projected score: Lions 27, Packers 23
The pick: Lions +1.5 - Texans at Rams
Projected score: Rams 23, Texans 21
The pick: Texans +2.5 - Ravens at Bills
Projected score: Ravens 27, Bills 24
The pick: Ravens +1.5
