NFL Week 1 Survivor Pool: Avoid the Cardinals, Trust the Model

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As the 2025 NFL season kicks off, millions of football fans will dive into the exhilarating world of survivor pools. The goal is simple: pick one winning team each week, but never the same team twice. One wrong move, and you’re out. With high stakes and unpredictable outcomes, a strategic approach is paramount.

Many players are eyeing the Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) for their Week 1 pick, especially with Micah Parsons sidelined for the Dallas Cowboys. Facing their NFC East rivals to open the season, the Eagles present an enticing option. However, with a healthy Dak Prescott and Dallas’s historical resilience against Philadelphia, is this the wisest early-season move, or should you save the Eagles for a more opportune moment?

Other popular Week 1 considerations include the Arizona Cardinals against the New Orleans Saints, the Denver Broncos versus the Tennessee Titans, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers battling the Atlanta Falcons. But before you lock in any picks, there’s a crucial resource to consult: the SportsLine Projection Model.

Kyler Murray Arizona Cardinals
Image source: CBSSports.com

The SportsLine Model: A Proven Track Record

The SportsLine Projection Model is no ordinary predictor. Simulating every NFL game 10,000 times, it has consistently delivered impressive results. Since its inception, the model is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks, boasting a remarkable 31-15 record on top-rated picks in 2024 alone. Its uncanny ability to identify winners makes it an invaluable tool for survivor pool players.

Now, the model has turned its computational prowess to the Week 1 NFL schedule and has locked in its top survivor pool pick. To see which team the model is backing, and to access exclusive insights, visit SportsLine. New users can also take advantage of the DraftKings promo code, offering $200 in bonus bets instantly plus over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket.

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Kyler Murray USATSI
Image source: CBSSports.com

Why You Should Avoid the Arizona Cardinals

Despite coming off an 8-9 season and entering their Week 1 matchup against the New Orleans Saints as 6.5-point favorites, the SportsLine model is strongly advising against picking the Arizona Cardinals. While betting against the struggling Saints might seem like a straightforward play, the Cardinals’ road performance in 2024 raises significant red flags.

Arizona finished last season with a dismal 2-6 record away from home, dropping five of their last seven contests overall. While New Orleans’ 5-12 record last year was disappointing, they did manage to secure three victories on their home turf, indicating they can be a tougher out in the Superdome.

Marvin Harrison Cardinals
Image source: CBSSports.com

Head-to-Head History and Model Projections

Historical data further complicates the picture for Arizona. New Orleans has claimed victory in five of the last eight head-to-head matchups dating back to 2007. Furthermore, the Cardinals have only covered the spread in three of those games, suggesting these contests are often tightly contested affairs.

The SportsLine model projects only a field goal difference between the two teams, giving the Cardinals just a 57% chance of winning outright. This narrow margin makes Arizona a high-risk Week 1 survivor pick. Don’t let the favorites tag fool you; there’s a much safer option available.

Kyler Murray Arizona Cardinals
Image source: thepress.net

The Model’s Confident Week 1 Pick

Instead of the Cardinals, the SportsLine model is confidently backing a surprising team to secure an outright win in 80% of its simulations. This isn’t a pick to save for later; the model indicates that Week 1 is the optimal time to deploy this team in your survivor pool strategy.

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To discover which surprising team the model has identified as a must-back for Week 1, and to gain access to all of SportsLine’s expert analysis, visit SportsLine now. This advanced computer model, with its impressive track record and over $7,000 in returns since its inception, is your ultimate guide to survivor pool success.

NFL Survivor Pool Picks
Image source: CBSSports.com
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