Sophia
The NFL season is upon us, and with it comes the thrilling anticipation of Week 1 action. As the Dallas Cowboys, now without the formidable Micah Parsons, prepare to face the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles, the betting lines are already in motion. The absence of Parsons has shifted the Thursday night kickoff line from Eagles -6.5 to -7, and even -7.5 at some books, signaling the start of a dynamic betting landscape.
Beyond the main game lines, one of the most popular and volatile markets is “anytime touchdown” prop bets. These wagers offer exciting opportunities for bettors to predict which players will find the end zone. We’ve identified three promising anytime touchdown plays with favorable odds that are likely to shift as kickoff approaches. Let’s dive into these picks, including a nearly 4-1 longshot that could make your Week 1 parlay a winner.
Chris Rodriguez Jr. vs. Giants: A Goal-Line Steal?
Imagine a running back ticketed for goal-line duties on a team with a projected total of around 27 points. You’d expect his anytime touchdown odds to be close to even, right? Yet, Chris Rodriguez Jr. is currently available at a tempting +190 on FanDuel. This presents a significant value opportunity.
Rodriguez has had an impressive summer, transforming from a potential cut candidate into a key player for the Commanders. His preseason flashes and strong camp performances, coupled with the emergence of rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt, led to the team feeling comfortable trading last year’s starting running back, Brian Robinson, to the 49ers. While fantasy enthusiasts are buzzing about Croskey-Merritt, don’t overlook Rodriguez.
The third-year back, who found the end zone in two of the three games last year where he had at least five carries, is reportedly set to handle short-yardage and goal-line responsibilities for Washington. This role could translate to a surprisingly high number of touchdowns, especially with defenses needing to account for Jayden Daniels’ rushing threat. We’d play this prop down to +125, confident that Rodriguez is more likely than not to score in Week 1.
David Njoku vs. Bengals: Flacco’s Favorite Target
All signs point to a big Week 1 for Browns tight end David Njoku. First, he’s entering the season healthy after being limited to 11 games in 2024 – a crucial factor given the early rash of training camp injuries across the league.
Second, the naming of Joe Flacco as the Browns’ starting quarterback is a massive boost for Njoku. Flacco’s late-2023 renaissance in Cleveland was heavily fueled by Njoku, who hauled in four touchdowns in a three-game span with Flacco under center. Their chemistry is undeniable.
Finally, the Browns face a Bengals defense that appears to be as vulnerable as last year’s unit, which was one of only two teams (along with the Panthers) to surrender at least 10 touchdowns to tight ends. With the Bengals’ offense expected to start strong, Flacco and company will likely be forced to throw frequently for four quarters, giving Njoku ample opportunities to score. We’ve seen this prop as high as +250 on FanDuel and would confidently play it down to +150.
Zach Charbonnet vs. 49ers: Uncovering Hidden Value
This pick could very well be the best value on the board once Week 1 workloads become clear. Zach Charbonnet is currently available at an enticing +370 to score a touchdown on FanDuel, while his backfield counterpart, Kenneth Walker, is near even odds. All indications suggest these two Seattle running backs should have much closer odds to score.
Looking back at last season, the timeshare between Walker and Charbonnet was nearly even, with Walker getting 199 touches to Charbonnet’s 177. While Walker missed six games due to injury, this actually highlights the value in Charbonnet for Week 1.
Walker has battled a foot injury throughout training camp, struggling to stay on the field, while Charbonnet has been a consistent presence, earning praise from the coaching staff. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Charbonnet emerge as the featured back in a few weeks. Even if Walker is the designated starter, it makes sense for the Seahawks to ease him back into action against the 49ers after his camp absences, giving Charbonnet a larger role than the market currently anticipates.
Considering the question marks surrounding Seattle’s passing attack and the injury concerns at receiver for San Francisco, which could keep this game close, Charbonnet’s odds should be closer to +200. This makes his current +370 a fantastic longshot opportunity.
The Week 1 Anytime Touchdown Parlay
Combining these three picks offers an exciting parlay opportunity. While odds are subject to change, locking in these plays early provides the best value. This Week 1 parlay not only presents a chance for a significant payout but also adds an extra layer of excitement to the opening slate of NFL games. Keep an eye on the lines, but don’t hesitate to jump on these favorable odds before they shift!
