Sophia
The NFL season kicks off with an air of unparalleled optimism, where all 32 teams harbor Super Bowl dreams. While some will validate their early confidence with a Week 1 victory, others are destined for a humbling reality check. This opening weekend is notorious for its unpredictability, and 2025 promises to be no different, with nearly half of the matchups featuring a point spread under a field goal. As a seasoned sports journalist, I’ve scoured the early lines and team dynamics to pinpoint five favored teams that are staring down a potential upset in their season opener.
All NFL odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders
When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, MA)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
Raiders ML odds: +122
The New England Patriots enter 2025 with significant buzz, and I’m certainly on board with the hype. Their offseason moves, from defensive fortifications to offensive line upgrades and the hiring of Mike Vrabel, suggest a team on the rise. However, they might be vulnerable right out of the gate when they host the Las Vegas Raiders.
The Raiders, much like New England, have made substantial improvements. The addition of head coach Pete Carroll and quarterback Geno Smith is expected to elevate their passing game, potentially giving them an edge. A critical factor for the Patriots is the health of All-Pro corner Christian Gonzalez, who has been limited or absent from practice for the past month due to a hamstring injury. His potential absence would expose the Patriots’ secondary. Furthermore, rookie quarterback Drake Maye had a shaky preseason, completing just 58.3% of his passes for 58 yards and a fumble in limited action. If he’s still shaking off the rust, a sluggish offensive performance could open the door for a Raiders upset.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) vs. New York Jets
When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, NJ)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
Jets ML odds: +120
All eyes will be on Aaron Rodgers as he returns to MetLife Stadium, this time as the new quarterback for the Pittsburgh Steelers, facing his former New York Jets squad. This narrative has gained so much traction that Pittsburgh is a road favorite, laying 2.5 points. While Rodgers certainly brings excitement, the Jets are a live underdog in this matchup, and arguably, they might even have the better quarterback option at this juncture.
Rodgers is coming off the worst statistical season of his career in 2024, only finding a late-season rhythm with his old Green Bay Packers teammate, Davante Adams. Adams is now in Southern California, and Rodgers, who joined Pittsburgh just before mandatory minicamp and sat out the preseason, must quickly build chemistry with new pass-catchers, led by DK Metcalf. His tenure with the Jets showed a struggle to immediately gel with new pieces, often relying on familiar faces. This luxury won’t be available with the Steelers, potentially leading to struggles against a Jets defense intimately familiar with his tendencies. New York’s defense, coupled with a low-risk, run-first offensive approach, could limit Rodgers and the Steelers’ offense, slowing the game down and setting the stage for an upset.
San Francisco 49ers (-2.5) vs. Seattle Seahawks
When: 4:05 p.m. ET | Where: Lumen Field (Seattle)
TV: Fox | Stream: Fubo (try for free)
Seahawks ML odds: +116
The San Francisco 49ers are poised for a bounce-back year after a 2024 season plagued by injuries. However, my perception of the Seattle Seahawks has done a complete 180 as the season opener approaches. Initially skeptical of the Geno Smith-for-Sam Darnold swap, Darnold’s preseason performance suggests he’s picking up where he left off in Minnesota. The Seahawks’ ground game, featuring the formidable duo of Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet, could be lethal. They’ve also bolstered their offensive line and are building on a defense that ranked top-10 in key areas last year, particularly red zone efficiency and third-down stops. I anticipate they’ll be far more competitive than many expect, making them an attractive home underdog against San Francisco.
For the 49ers, their wide receiver room has been dinged up throughout the summer. While Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle will remain central to the offense, a lack of depth at receiver could limit the unit’s potency early in the season, especially against a solid Seattle defense playing at home.
Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs. Detroit Lions
When: 4:25 p.m. ET | Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, WI)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
Lions ML odds: +120
This line has seen a significant shift. Detroit initially opened as a -1.5 road favorite, but the line has since swung to the Packers, who have gained steam following the Micah Parsons trade. Green Bay is now laying 2.5 points and is -142 on the moneyline. This feels too rich, especially against a team as talented as the Detroit Lions.
A major question mark surrounds Parsons’ debut. The former Cowboys pass rusher missed all of summer practice due to a contract dispute and is also dealing with a back injury, reportedly even needing an epidural injection to play in the opener. This doesn’t scream 100% health, and any inflation of the spread due to his presence could burn Packers backers. Moreover, the Packers remain an unknown quantity. Jordan Love has historically struggled early in seasons, and the team went a dismal 1-5 (0-5-1 ATS) against divisional opponents last year, including two losses to Detroit. While the Lions lost both coordinators this offseason, they still boast one of the most talented and deepest rosters in the NFL. They could very well walk out of Lambeau Field with a surprising victory on Sunday.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) vs. Chicago Bears (Monday)
When: 8:15 p.m. ET | Where: Soldier Field (Chicago)
TV: ABC/ESPN | Stream: Fubo (try for free)
Bears ML odds: +108
A remarkable amount of pressure rests on J.J. McCarthy’s shoulders. The Minnesota Vikings quarterback, a first-round pick in 2024, is entering his first season as the full-time starter after missing his rookie year due to a knee injury. With Sam Darnold gone in free agency, McCarthy now holds the keys to the offense. Despite the talent surrounding him, making a virtual unknown under center a road favorite feels like a stretch.
McCarthy hasn’t played a meaningful snap since the College Football Playoff National Championship, where he completed just 10 of 18 passes for 140 yards. This is compounded by the Vikings’ dismal 0-6 record in their last six road primetime games. Heading into Soldier Field to face a revamped Chicago Bears team under first-year head coach Ben Johnson presents a formidable challenge. The Bears, with a new energy and potentially improved roster, could easily spring an upset under the Monday night lights.
For more insights and predictions, check out Newsweek’s Week 1 previews.
